Ajar-Birth
0xf119f5badc8568258b4cb712bab2803e00266d58
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-578.43
Realised
$42.92
Win rate
83%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
3150 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- ITALY
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Italy vs USA
2100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2?
1575 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
1403 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 16?
1138 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.46
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.56Jul 17, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$1.06Jul 17, 08:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?$2.52Jul 17, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?$5.79Jul 16, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$1.06Jul 16, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$2.11Jul 16, 10:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$2.12Jul 16, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$2.10Jul 16, 10:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$1.06Jul 16, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$1.05Jul 16, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$1.02Jul 16, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.37Jul 16, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.02Jul 16, 09:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 09:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.59Jul 16, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.03Jul 16, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$3.80Jul 16, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$2.12Jul 16, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.06Jul 16, 09:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 09:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 15:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 08:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.