0xf1427405f3e840b009d41c4a445f032e2f0a6bb5
0xf1427405f3e840b009d41c4a445f032e2f0a6bb5
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$51.64
Total PnL
$-292.20
Realised
$-96.50
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
52 shares @ 96.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$51.64
$1.64
- YES
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?
741 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 17?
84 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?
52 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 7?
51 shares @ 97.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- HORNETS
Hornets vs. Magic
33 shares @ 56.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-18.75
- YES
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
23 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-8.65
- PARIVISION
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
13 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24?
11 shares @ 92.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27?
10 shares @ 96.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$50.07Aug 12, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: 9z vs paiN (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D$50.74Aug 12, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: 9z vs paiN (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D$50.04Aug 12, 20:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?$51.07Aug 12, 20:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?$0.00Aug 12, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?$50.05Aug 12, 15:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in July?$51.68Aug 12, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in July?$50.08Aug 12, 03:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fred Clark be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?$29.18Aug 12, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fred Clark be the WI-07 Democratic nominee?$50.03Aug 11, 21:13 UTC
- REDEEMMeta (META) Up or Down on August 11?$51.28Aug 11, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYMeta (META) Up or Down on August 11?$50.05Aug 11, 17:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 11?$51.02Aug 11, 17:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 11?$0.00Aug 11, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 11?$50.05Aug 11, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 10?$51.27Aug 11, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 10?$50.06Aug 10, 08:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?$50.32Aug 10, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?$0.00Aug 10, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?$50.02Aug 10, 03:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $48.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 21:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 23:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.