Active-Runway
0xf14aa295e6fac50810e33c20f1b5d57f3dfc86d2
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
125
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-252.97
Realised
$-0.28
Win rate
10%
105 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 30?
1011 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 3?
1005 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 12?
300 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13?
291 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 13?
208 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12?
200 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 10?
100 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 14?
100 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 12?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 11?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 4?$13.19Aug 4, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 4?$10.12Aug 4, 12:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 3?$9.90Aug 3, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 3?$8.47Aug 3, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 2?$11.12Aug 2, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 2?$10.06Aug 2, 23:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 31?$10.99Jul 31, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 31?$10.05Jul 31, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 29?$8.99Jul 29, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 29?$7.17Jul 29, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$11.37Jul 28, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 28?$10.06Jul 28, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 28?$11.42Jul 28, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 28?$10.07Jul 28, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 28?$1.81Jul 28, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 28?$1.60Jul 28, 12:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 27?$12.52Jul 27, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 27?$2.12Jul 27, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 27?$7.98Jul 27, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 26?$10.99Jul 26, 21:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 105 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
105 closed markets, 10% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 07:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 15:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 105 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.