Neglected-Sparerib
0xf1554a6292c37db1cd007102b0f55bd7e7ac76bd
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
57
Open notional
$5.6K
Total PnL
$-9.0K
Realised
$-3.7K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
2668 shares @ 97.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.7K
$60.04
- NO
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?
742 shares @ 72.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$706.34
$172.13
- NO
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?
685 shares @ 66.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$448.35
$-3.22
- NO
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31?
430 shares @ 90.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$429.35
$42.35
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
432 shares @ 71.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$407.90
$101.44
- NO
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than -0.5%?
302 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$301.40
$32.62
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 5, 2026?
278 shares @ 77.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$229.35
$15.29
- YES
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?
307 shares @ 72.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$228.82
$7.68
- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?
196 shares @ 75.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$173.70
$26.50
- YES
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
4370 shares @ 76.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.3K
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?$2.0KJul 29, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?$290.14Jul 29, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 5, 2026?$216.03Jul 29, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$224.24Jul 29, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$185.68Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$87.23Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?$1.5KJul 28, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?$149.04Jul 28, 17:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?$60.99Jul 27, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fake News" during Michigan remarks?$51.56Jul 27, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?$257.64Jul 26, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?$1.7KJul 25, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?$1.5KJul 25, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$939.68Jul 22, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$306.46Jul 22, 05:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLRomanian PM Bolojan out by July 31?$92.53Jul 21, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$157.02Jul 19, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$205.90Jul 19, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.5KJul 18, 18:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 4 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
61%
Sample
limited
4 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$26.9K · 47% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $455.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 17:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 20:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.