Concrete-Ingredient
0xf15a6fcaced89d779a3f243eaf033917cd3898c2
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-36.69
Realised
$-0.35
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4
208 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win another state by the largest margin?
90 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-1.17
- YES
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14
86 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-2.42
- YES
Democrats win popular vote by 7% or more?
60 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.28
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win California by the largest margin?
60 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-2.04
- YES
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency?
57 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-2.11
- YES
Will Kamala win 60% of women?
43 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Iran strike on Israel on Nov 5?
36 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-2.47
- YES
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%?
30 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.60
- YES
U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?
25 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?$6.91Nov 6, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin all time high day after election?$25.00Nov 6, 17:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift attend Kamala's Pennsylvania rally?$0.00Nov 5, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?$0.00Nov 5, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMAnother Iran strike on Israel in October?$0.00Nov 5, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend?$0.00Nov 5, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be another debate?$0.00Nov 5, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $61-70m opening weekend?$0.00Nov 5, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump tweet 20-29 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?$0.00Nov 5, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?$0.00Nov 5, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran strike on Israel on Nov 5?$2.47Nov 5, 19:17 UTC
- TRADESELLGOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?$1.85Nov 5, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIran strike on Israel on Nov 5?$0.62Nov 5, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUY2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 5-14$1.00Nov 4, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Swift attend Kamala's Pennsylvania rally?$1.00Nov 4, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran strike on Israel on Nov 5?$2.00Nov 4, 21:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?$2.40Nov 4, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump wins 270-268 - GA, NC, PA$1.00Nov 4, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYKamala wins 273-265 - GA, MI, NC$1.00Nov 4, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. Presidential election decided by ≤10k votes?$2.00Nov 4, 21:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 27, 03:57 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 6, 17:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".