Wobbly-Bug
0xf15b9994af295608d9fdea5b4dceacee86296cd6
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-572.55
Realised
$-60.48
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
571 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?
435 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 10?
248 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.52
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 10?
220 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.59
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
172 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-19.94
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
147 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.98
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
129 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.18
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
81 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
68 shares @ 13.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.27
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
51 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-8.71
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?$102.31May 6, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 10?$10.00Apr 10, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 10?$5.00Apr 10, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 10?$5.00Apr 10, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on April 11?$2.00Apr 10, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 10?$2.17Apr 10, 15:59 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.99Mar 16, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$0.00Mar 15, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$18.94Mar 15, 20:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$34.03Mar 15, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$4.40Mar 15, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.65Mar 15, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.52Mar 15, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.46Mar 15, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.65Mar 15, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$4.96Mar 15, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$5.00Mar 15, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.55Mar 15, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$2.60Mar 15, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$3.46Mar 15, 20:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 20:05 UTC
- Last active
- May 6, 17:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.