Cuddly-Tussle
0xf179611b9855c528042343bf0ab351719ecafd27
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$38.45
Total PnL
$-966.67
Realised
$-0.11
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- YES
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?
17 shares @ 59.2¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$11.98
$1.98
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
17 shares @ 58.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.74
$-0.26
- YES
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 56.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.77
$-2.23
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
44 shares @ 22.7¢·now 15.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.76
$-3.24
- YES
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?
97 shares @ 10.3¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.26
$-8.74
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
14 shares @ 73.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.75
$-9.25
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
19 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.18
$-9.82
- YES
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June?
738 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?
407 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$25.00Jul 20, 19:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$80.65Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $11.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 12:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.