Wobbly-Sustenance
0xf1c185915beab6ae9b8fed3ff05646706cc61beb
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.5K
Realised
$-2.7K
Win rate
42%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1167 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 22?
540 shares @ 98.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-533.76
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 24?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 11?
495 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.48
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 26?
375 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-11.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 5?
318 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-15.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on March 10?
300 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 13?
300 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-19.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 11?
300 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17?$9.33Jun 17, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$1.00Jun 17, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$1.65Jun 17, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$3.35Jun 17, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$1.65Jun 17, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?$3.40Jun 17, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17?$1.71Jun 16, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18?$0.29Jun 16, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18?$1.96Jun 16, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18?$2.20Jun 16, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16?$0.90Jun 16, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?$30.97Jun 16, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?$4.18Jun 16, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?$3.66Jun 16, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?$3.22Jun 16, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?$1.81Jun 16, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16?$2.61Jun 16, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?$1.40Jun 16, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16?$0.47Jun 16, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16?$1.30Jun 16, 02:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 06:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 04:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.