Used-Smelting
0xf1c31b365137435ac589ff618461381b96f2613d
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-158.63
Realised
$-2.02
Win rate
31%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33°F or below on February 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 11?
954 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 11?
264 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 12?
187 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on February 13?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 18?
95 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 11?
85 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
79 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 11?
72 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$1.40Feb 23, 16:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?$1.46Feb 23, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.00Feb 18, 10:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 19?$0.14Feb 18, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 19?$1.00Feb 18, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18?$2.00Feb 17, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18?$2.00Feb 17, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18?$2.00Feb 17, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18?$2.00Feb 17, 23:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18?$0.77Feb 17, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 19?$1.50Feb 17, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 18?$1.00Feb 17, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on February 18?$1.00Feb 17, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18?$2.00Feb 17, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 18?$2.00Feb 17, 23:04 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - February 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.62Feb 17, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - February 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.00Feb 17, 22:39 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - February 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.54Feb 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - February 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.00Feb 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - February 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$1.60Feb 17, 22:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 20:50 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 23, 16:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.