0xf1e0bee55e83ebf7fc60f38667cfea7eb5520f73
0xf1e0bee55e83ebf7fc60f38667cfea7eb5520f73
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-268.5K
Realised
$10.3K
Win rate
55%
119 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Bitcoin above $114,000 on August 1?
20792 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-2.4K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6AM ET
19418 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-661.88
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
19121 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-554.13
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 10PM ET
18757 shares @ 19.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2025$0.00
$-3.6K
- NO
Bitcoin above $110K on August 22?
17918 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.2K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 2AM ET
16757 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 12, 2025$0.00
$-2.7K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 1AM ET
16519 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 24, 2025$0.00
$-758.29
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1AM ET
16428 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2025$0.00
$-3.2K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 11PM ET
16079 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 11, 2025$0.00
$-938.57
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $107,500 on September 1 at 8AM ET?
15180 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-675.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$17.61Aug 6, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.06Aug 5, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.17Aug 5, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.06Aug 5, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.13Aug 5, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$13.79Aug 5, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$28.73Aug 5, 22:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$66.12Aug 5, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$9.14Aug 5, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$0.19Aug 5, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$1.25Aug 5, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4AM ET$0.00Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$0.00Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2AM ET$0.01Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$0.00Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$0.00Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$0.00Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 1AM ET$0.00Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$0.00Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$0.00Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 119 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
10 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
119 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 10
- Avg trade size
- $7.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 22:05 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 23:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 119 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.