Outgoing-Ride
0xf1f81d40ae910099e1a65addb54942e76ca0f4cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.6K
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$42.40
Win rate
71%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3600 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.9K
$1.1K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3600 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$721.80
$-1.1K
- YES
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5?
819 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-34.26
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May 30?
600 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28?
580 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-35.33
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.32Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.32Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.33Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $8.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.