Frightening-Choker
0xf203d180bc108d011c4496aebeb0df0a76188a41
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$707.15
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$25.37
Win rate
4%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- NO
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 23?
83 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$78.33
$3.33
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?
76 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$75.85
$2.13
- NO
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 BMW Championship?
82 shares @ 91.8¢·now 90.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$73.49
$-1.51
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
62 shares @ 96.9¢·now 98.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$60.74
$0.74
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
63 shares @ 96.0¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$59.16
$-0.84
- NO
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 BMW Championship?
59 shares @ 94.8¢·now 84.4¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$50.16
$-6.16
- NO
Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 5–10%?
49 shares @ 94.5¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$48.98
$2.27
- YES
Will Bernadette Wilson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
48 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$47.18
$2.45
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 23?
43 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$42.98
$1.27
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
43 shares @ 95.6¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.45
$0.06
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on August 23?$75.37Aug 23, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 23?$38.48Aug 23, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 23?$13.71Aug 23, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 23?$41.77Aug 23, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 23?$32.72Aug 23, 11:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 22?$39.63Aug 23, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 22?$39.21Aug 23, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 22?$39.21Aug 23, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 22?$16.00Aug 23, 06:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 22?$20.00Aug 23, 05:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 22?$40.00Aug 23, 05:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 22?$38.80Aug 23, 05:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 22?$38.85Aug 23, 04:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 22?$76.79Aug 22, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rory McIlroy win the 2026 BMW Championship?$75.31Aug 22, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 BMW Championship?$56.47Aug 22, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on August 22, 2026?$37.55Aug 22, 22:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 22?$54.11Aug 22, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C on August 22?$30.00Aug 22, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 22?$74.46Aug 22, 21:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
51 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $42.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 03:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 11:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.