Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.1K

Realised

$-121.74

Win rate

80 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 80

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?
1435 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-4.78
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
623 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
556 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
541 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
513 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
410 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
373 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-7.45
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
358 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
351 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$10.12May 26, 14:37 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$0.00May 25, 11:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$0.00May 25, 10:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$50.17May 25, 09:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$5.17May 25, 09:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$5.33May 25, 09:41 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$31.23May 25, 08:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$15.56May 25, 08:45 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.61May 25, 08:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$10.50May 25, 08:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$6.85May 25, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$5.09May 25, 08:33 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$24.35May 25, 08:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$21.24May 25, 08:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$48.89May 25, 08:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$44.31May 25, 08:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$44.32May 25, 08:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$39.33May 25, 07:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$0.00May 24, 12:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$184.54May 24, 12:21 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 80 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

80 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $23.79
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 23, 22:49 UTC
Last active: May 26, 14:37 UTC
Win rate sample: 80 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:56:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data