Flamboyant-Smog
0xf21e32a9636910a7f3e72112b29cc714ca36d5fd
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-776.94
Realised
$-95.58
Win rate
4%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
1500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
131 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-9.94
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
113 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
110 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
108 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
87 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.23
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
52 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-12.14
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
50 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-24.33
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
47 shares @ 22.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-10.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
40 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-8.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$0.52Aug 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.61Aug 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.16Aug 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.08Aug 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.71Aug 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.59Aug 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.15Aug 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.64Aug 12, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$0.70Aug 12, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.68Aug 12, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.47Aug 12, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.63Aug 12, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.55Aug 12, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.55Aug 12, 13:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.33Aug 12, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$1.58Aug 12, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.07Aug 12, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.64Aug 12, 13:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.84Aug 12, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.36Aug 12, 13:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
64/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
200 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 11:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 13:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.