Decent-Equinox
0xf24078110fa3ac7ed759e4b1ef96c17b68e52392
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-861.57
Realised
$-241.86
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?
7612 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-173.53
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025?
4381 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-39.43
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 2025?
934 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-211.27
- YES
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?
248 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-68.03
- YES
MetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?
210 shares @ 50.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-106.10
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration?
50 shares @ 36.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-18.07
- YES
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?
27 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.95
- YES
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
5 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?
2 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-0.23
Recent activity
- REDEEMFact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?$5.00Apr 11, 10:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?$9.68Apr 11, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or more?$25.88Feb 24, 18:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or more?$0.64Feb 21, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or more?$2.00Feb 21, 08:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or more?$2.00Feb 21, 02:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or more?$5.43Feb 20, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or more?$2.06Feb 20, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?$78.81Feb 20, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $7m?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $64m?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Love Hurts" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $5m?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $30-35m?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $25m?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mike Pompeo be Trump's Defense Secretary?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elbridge Colby be Trump's Defense Secretary?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $18-21m?$0.00Feb 20, 23:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $23.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 16, 08:50 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 10:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.