Immaterial-Illiteracy
0xf24c20aced21f0d389e218121d2ee98f939674a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$101.92
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$228.14
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
102 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$101.92
$2.18
- YES
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?
25748 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-680.75
- YES
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
22500 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-477.38
- YES
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?
3693 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-384.52
- YES
Will the Greens be part of the next German government?
1234 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-367.92
- YES
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
385 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
291 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
15 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?$49.05Mar 8, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Greens be part of the next German government?$291.20Feb 23, 23:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Greens be part of the next German government?$76.72Feb 23, 23:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$4.10Feb 23, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?$0.43Feb 23, 23:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$2.00Feb 23, 23:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$1.53Feb 23, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?$0.01Feb 23, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$0.75Feb 23, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$0.18Feb 23, 23:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$0.12Feb 23, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?$0.08Feb 23, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?$1.11Feb 23, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?$88.92Feb 23, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?$9.88Feb 23, 23:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$1.00Feb 23, 23:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?$0.17Feb 23, 23:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?$22.73Feb 23, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?$3.87Feb 23, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?$3.02Feb 23, 22:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $24.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 23, 22:15 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 8, 07:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.