Flickering-Tumbler
0xf24e5afb9fae61d3d6b603a2651b719a3053ad48
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-5.6K
Realised
$82.10
Win rate
45%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
1336 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-70.05
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
1273 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-228.68
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
1099 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-297.45
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 7PM ET
1002 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET
935 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-69.87
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
920 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-99.77
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
871 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-296.26
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
715 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-112.03
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
677 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-114.38
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$103.64Feb 11, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$50.88Feb 11, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$25.93Feb 11, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$100.00Feb 11, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$87.71Feb 11, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$100.00Feb 11, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$20.00Feb 11, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$100.00Feb 11, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$14.55Feb 11, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$10.00Feb 11, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$20.00Feb 11, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$117.00Feb 11, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$100.00Feb 11, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$1.00Feb 10, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$12.81Feb 10, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$0.32Feb 10, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$136.27Feb 10, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$20.00Feb 10, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$30.00Feb 10, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$100.00Feb 10, 21:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
31 closed markets, 45% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $85.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 10, 19:33 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 15:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.