Whimsical-Harmony
0xf24f1cf27b273daadefd5d363a4e7f93454e80e3
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$68.40
Total PnL
$-189.39
Realised
$8.34
Win rate
42%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
20 shares @ 6.0¢·now 26.7¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$5.33
$4.13
- YES
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$4.10
$2.10
- YES
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
25 shares @ 10.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.00
$0.50
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?
100 shares @ 1.1¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.75
$1.65
- YES
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
30 shares @ 8.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$2.70
$0.30
- YES
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?
30 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.55
$-0.15
- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
60 shares @ 2.7¢·now 3.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.31
$0.69
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.20
$-0.20
- YES
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.00
$1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$0.75Jul 29, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$0.30Jul 29, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$0.45Jul 29, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?$2.70Jul 29, 00:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$2.50Jul 28, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$1.41Jul 28, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$1.26Jul 28, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of July 27 2026?$0.60Jul 28, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?$1.00Jul 28, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.00Jul 28, 01:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$0.07Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$2.40Jul 27, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s remarks not air?$0.07Jul 27, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$1.32Jul 27, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$0.33Jul 27, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$2.41Jul 27, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$0.39Jul 27, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?$1.50Jul 27, 16:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 11:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 11:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.