Pessimistic-Condition
0xf255e701163e4b19c9f0d288c32c15d790a5a6e8
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$62.90
Total PnL
$-662.17
Realised
$-628.65
Win rate
17%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?
70 shares @ 94.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$62.90
$-2.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 12?
51 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-7.38
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 7?
48 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14?
40 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.36
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 27?
39 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-0.66
- YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?
10 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-7.06
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?
7 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 13?
6 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 5?
3 shares @ 33.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 22?$0.42Aug 22, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 23?$65.53Aug 22, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22?$49.15Aug 22, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22?$4.90Aug 22, 07:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22?$12.00Aug 22, 07:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22?$18.93Aug 22, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22?$81.76Aug 22, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?$109.77Aug 22, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?$2.69Aug 22, 04:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?$59.00Aug 22, 04:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?$27.65Aug 22, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?$2.71Aug 22, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?$5.00Aug 22, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?$4.99Aug 22, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?$51.00Aug 22, 04:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 22?$3.25Aug 22, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?$86.65Aug 22, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?$139.58Aug 22, 02:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?$3.29Aug 22, 02:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?$17.40Aug 22, 02:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $38.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 19:03 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 15:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.