Golden-Poncho
0xf28936ef9acb1adcebf7fbe9b84673dfb81ee96c
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-174.63
Realised
$-13.31
Win rate
2%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
200 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
132 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
125 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- UP
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
122 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
117 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
111 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
104 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
78 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$0.00May 24, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.07May 24, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$3.20May 24, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$2.12May 24, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$2.10May 24, 01:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$4.40May 24, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$2.05May 24, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$2.08May 24, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$3.08May 24, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$2.09May 24, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$2.07May 24, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.03May 24, 01:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$11.36May 24, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$5.14May 24, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.05May 24, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.02May 24, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.03May 24, 01:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$4.90May 24, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.06May 24, 01:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$1.04May 24, 01:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
61 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 23, 23:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 01:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.