Mellow-Fork
0xf2aa8381a08ec33467fbcdd0843aa31cb8d521fb
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$8.4K
Total PnL
$990.30
Realised
$449.29
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
3220 shares @ 71.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$2.7K
$403.38
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
3600 shares @ 70.2¢·now 66.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.4K
$-136.44
- YES
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
2220 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$2.1K
$99.90
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
500 shares @ 85.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$477.50
$48.00
- NO
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of July?
200 shares @ 90.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$194.00
$14.00
- NO
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?
758 shares @ 9.2¢·now 24.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2027$181.83
$112.49
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?
100 shares @ 87.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.50
$7.50
- NO
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
77 shares @ 85.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$75.88
$10.43
- NO
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
80 shares @ 78.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$74.49
$11.53
- NO
Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by July 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 67.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$65.50
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$1.5KJul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$414.00Jul 28, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$362.00Jul 28, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$1.0KJul 28, 22:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$75.01Jul 28, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1.00Jul 28, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$110.18Jul 28, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$158.88Jul 28, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$40.00Jul 28, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by July 31, 2026?$67.00Jul 28, 17:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$254.85Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$2.86Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$2.29Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$9.16Jul 28, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$50.00Jul 28, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$50.00Jul 28, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$100.00Jul 28, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?$8.72Jul 28, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$24.78Jul 28, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$0.28Jul 28, 10:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $373.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 21:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.