Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

190

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-13.3K

Realised

$-618.13

Win rate

190 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 190

YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?
2920 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
619 shares @ 32.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
426 shares @ 50.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-215.12
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
421 shares @ 47.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
412 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
385 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 8AM ET
377 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-195.42
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7AM ET
357 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
333 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
321 shares @ 31.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$47.62Aug 17, 09:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$30.78Aug 17, 09:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$2.90Aug 17, 08:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$30.88Aug 17, 08:05 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.03Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$31.07Aug 15, 12:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$62.14Aug 15, 12:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$31.03Aug 15, 12:04 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$66.89Aug 15, 11:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$60.43Aug 15, 11:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$7.18Aug 15, 11:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$31.03Aug 15, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$0.00Aug 15, 10:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$117.65Aug 15, 10:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$62.06Aug 15, 10:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$31.07Aug 15, 09:59 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$89.67Aug 15, 09:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$31.05Aug 15, 09:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$31.05Aug 15, 09:05 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.05Aug 15, 00:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 190 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

190 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity67 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry89 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 30
Avg trade size: $39.35
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 13, 19:09 UTC
Last active: Aug 17, 09:06 UTC
Win rate sample: 190 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:25:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data