Ill-Fated-Waterwheel
0xf2c80ff263d39ade08971f61afd2abdf4817fad0
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
19238 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-846.31
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
15000 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-185.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
11000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-46.47
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
2923 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-11.59
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
2500 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-47.50
- YES
Will Wyndham Clark win The 2025 Open Championship?
375 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Bryson DeChambeau be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship?
201 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Shane Lowry be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship?
201 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Dean Burmester be the first round leader at the 2025 Open Championship?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLAustralian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz$12.92Jan 26, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLAustralian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz$40.25Jan 26, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz$10.00Jan 26, 03:18 UTC
- REDEEMYieldbasis FDV above $1B one day after launch?$0.00Jan 25, 13:17 UTC
- REDEEMYieldbasis FDV above $3B one day after launch?$0.00Jan 25, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMAustralian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Novak Djokovic$37.04Jan 25, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz$40.00Jan 24, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Novak Djokovic$20.00Jan 24, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.27Nov 28, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.45Nov 28, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.53Nov 28, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.62Nov 28, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.01Nov 28, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.02Nov 28, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.05Nov 28, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.16Nov 28, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.51Nov 28, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.80Nov 28, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.20Nov 28, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?$0.02Nov 28, 08:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 28, 05:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 26, 03:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".