0xf2cb9b0e64d021bbe3421bb7f4e8f5de11799474
0xf2cb9b0e64d021bbe3421bb7f4e8f5de11799474
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Joe Biden say "Inflation" during his May 8 interview?
1200 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2025$0.00
$-492.00
- NO
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08?
1100 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2025$0.00
$-561.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 22?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Joe Biden say "Social Security" during his May 8 interview?
995 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2025$0.00
$-378.10
- YES
Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?
995 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$0.00
$-338.30
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on May 8?
525 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2025$0.00
$-262.50
- SMITH
Liam Smith vs. Aaron McKenna
375 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- NO
Will Dortmund beat Hoffenheim?
305 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2025$0.00
$-88.45
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?
190 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2025$0.00
$-95.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on April 30?
180 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$0.00
$-79.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMETH/BTC Up or Down on May 9?$115.00May 9, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joe Biden say "China" during his May 8 interview?$295.00May 9, 05:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joe Biden say "Tariff" during his May 8 interview?$605.00May 9, 05:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?$5.00May 9, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYETH/BTC Up or Down on May 9?$55.20May 8, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down on May 8?$15.30May 7, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joe Biden say "China" during his May 8 interview?$156.35May 7, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joe Biden say "Tariff" during his May 8 interview?$217.80May 7, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on May 8?$95.00May 7, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joe Biden say "Social Security" during his May 8 interview?$378.10May 7, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on May 8?$262.50May 7, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on May 8?$14.40May 7, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?$338.30May 7, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United win on 2025-05-08?$68.85May 7, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United win on 2025-05-08?$127.50May 7, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United win on 2025-05-08?$22.95May 7, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United win on 2025-05-08?$341.70May 7, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joe Biden say "Inflation" during his May 8 interview?$270.60May 7, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joe Biden say "Inflation" during his May 8 interview?$221.40May 7, 07:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?$130.00May 7, 06:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $146.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 09:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 9, 20:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.