Polished-Birdcage
0xf2d8c52a681d1aca8ff591613744bea621fa3f71
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$1.65
Total PnL
$-56.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
304 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.15
$-32.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- TEAM LYNX
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
243 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.97
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
145 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- DISGUISED
LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner
65 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.97
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
34 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.69
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
29 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.70
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
17 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$2.00Apr 12, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$20.00Apr 12, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$21.81Apr 12, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$11.00Apr 12, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$5.68Apr 12, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$12.00Apr 12, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$23.95Apr 12, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$41.76Apr 12, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.00Apr 12, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner$1.00Apr 12, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$2.00Apr 12, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$25.00Apr 12, 20:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$28.76Apr 12, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$4.50Apr 12, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs$1.00Apr 12, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.00Apr 12, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.00Apr 12, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.00Apr 12, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$5.00Apr 12, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$5.00Apr 12, 17:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $12.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 17:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 12, 23:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".