Well-To-Do-Rock
0xf2f2df41cd3ff33147e622869ac052ce5ad2d1f0
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$52.87
Total PnL
$-19.83
Realised
$-7.14
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?
20 shares @ 90.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$17.60
$-0.40
- NO
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
20 shares @ 77.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$15.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?
20 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$10.30
$-0.10
- NO
Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
10 shares @ 68.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.80
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
5 shares @ 49.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.63
$-0.03
- YES
Will Tarsier Pharma's market cap be greater than $450M at market close on IPO day?
7 shares @ 29.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$1.35
$-0.66
- YES
Will Tencent have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?
10 shares @ 3.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.19
$-0.11
- NO
Will Eastern Europe Win the Dota EWC 2026?
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?
20 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will GamerLegion Qualify to LAN BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?
20 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.60
Recent activity
- MERGEWill Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$14.57Jul 23, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$7.14Jul 23, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Melania" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$9.80Jul 23, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 25?$1.85Jul 23, 22:52 UTC
- MERGEWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 25?$17.22Jul 23, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 25?$2.50Jul 23, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 25?$0.02Jul 23, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 25?$1.73Jul 23, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 25?$0.06Jul 23, 22:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Houthis successfully target shipping on July 30, 2026?$16.74Jul 23, 22:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?$2.70Jul 23, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?$4.20Jul 23, 22:11 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 25?$15.91Jul 23, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 25?$3.11Jul 23, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 25?$3.50Jul 23, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?$16.46Jul 23, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?$17.60Jul 23, 21:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?$11.76Jul 23, 21:39 UTC
- MERGEWill Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?$20.00Jul 23, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?$34.00Jul 23, 21:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $8.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 16:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 23:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.