Watchful-Railing
0xf32c69b898f039255b95cca3f72be6614df6cc9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-102.49
Win rate
5%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 12?
270 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-53.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 2?
236 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-54.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 1?
233 shares @ 37.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-87.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 2?
222 shares @ 40.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-89.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 7?
219 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 7?
210 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13?
188 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 27?
140 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 7?
137 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 30?
131 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?$47.03Jul 5, 16:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?$8.69Jul 5, 12:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?$4.00Jul 5, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?$4.00Jul 5, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on July 5?$1.05Jul 5, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?$0.17Jul 5, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?$1.10Jul 5, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?$0.70Jul 5, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?$0.03Jul 5, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 5?$3.12Jul 5, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 5?$5.20Jul 5, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 5?$5.97Jul 5, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on July 5?$3.13Jul 4, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 4?$3.00Jul 4, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 5?$7.23Jul 4, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?$3.13Jul 4, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 5?$10.34Jul 4, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 4?$2.09Jul 3, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 4?$2.09Jul 3, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?$0.57Jul 3, 17:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 11:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 16:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.