0xf33f4c02ff87c069af69a9c9369186c275fbecc4
0xf33f4c02ff87c069af69a9c9369186c275fbecc4
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$13.69
Total PnL
$-172.07
Realised
$-1.22
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
14 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$13.69
$3.70
- YES
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Ayatollah" during Monday press conference?
2875 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-28.75
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
168 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-47.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
143 shares @ 24.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
143 shares @ 24.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?
36 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?
30 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.13
- YES
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?
3 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$15.06Apr 1, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$15.56Apr 1, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$10.77Apr 1, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$2.81Apr 1, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$2.80Apr 1, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?$19.74Mar 26, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?$49.45Mar 24, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$16.03Mar 24, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$0.01Mar 24, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?$1.55Mar 24, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLPakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?$2.36Mar 24, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?$5.33Mar 24, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?$9.50Mar 23, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$102.67Mar 22, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$39.81Mar 22, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$7.81Mar 22, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$10.37Mar 22, 10:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?$31.37Mar 18, 17:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$39.11Mar 18, 17:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?$117.24Mar 18, 17:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $14.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 08:27 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 01:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.