Phony-Justice
0xf3457a5b9d96b80570a7fe44f2bd734cf344552d
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$4.79
Total PnL
$-13.95
Realised
$28.27
Win rate
8%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on August 21, 2026?
6 shares @ 36.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on August 21, 2026?
9 shares @ 23.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.95
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 16?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?
8 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on July 30?
764 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 92°F or higher on July 30?
649 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 30?
609 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 30?
189 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 16?$1.05Aug 16, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 16?$2.08Aug 16, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?$1.05Aug 16, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on August 21, 2026?$2.05Aug 16, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on August 21, 2026?$2.06Aug 16, 06:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$2.22Aug 16, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$1.07Aug 16, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$1.04Aug 16, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie$1.04Aug 16, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$1.03Aug 16, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 06:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$2.17Aug 16, 05:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.41Aug 16, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.04Aug 16, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$1.02Aug 16, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.96Aug 16, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$1.03Aug 16, 05:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 22:01 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 07:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.