Tragic-Expedition
0xf3596ede24b38ca59693e0ffa6ae9ce2978d5c81
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-161.11
Realised
$-0.18
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
333 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?
280 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.92
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Solana dip to $85 on May 24?
50 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?
36 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?
35 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-22.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
30 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.14
- YES
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?
28 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.10
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
11 shares @ 92.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?$1.30Jun 24, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5$1.01Jun 24, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$1.16Jun 24, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.07Jun 24, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$3.61Jun 24, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$3.54Jun 18, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET$3.08Jun 18, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?$1.07Jun 16, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?$5.12Jun 16, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16?$4.81Jun 16, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$6.35Jun 16, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.05Jun 16, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$2.02Jun 16, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16?$1.07Jun 16, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16?$3.10Jun 16, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$3.12Jun 16, 05:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?$7.19Jun 15, 00:25 UTC
- REDEEMBrazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score$4.87Jun 14, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score$2.33Jun 13, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?$2.05Jun 13, 22:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 13:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 12:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.