Striped-Pinot
0xf3829ca5fd631db041735b9a34b93b3d468bbe0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$266.13
Total PnL
$-903.44
Realised
$265.37
Win rate
50%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027?
354 shares @ 13.3¢·now 24.2¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$85.72
$38.49
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
235 shares @ 36.9¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$64.60
$-21.97
- YES
Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother season 28?
500 shares @ 17.0¢·now 8.8¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$44.25
$-40.75
- YES
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?
300 shares @ 43.8¢·now 14.0¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$42.00
$-89.40
- YES
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?
299 shares @ 18.6¢·now 3.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$10.62
$-45.03
- YES
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
500 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$8.75
$2.75
- YES
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?
200 shares @ 2.5¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$5.90
$0.90
- YES
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
113 shares @ 2.7¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$3.56
$0.55
- YES
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?
296 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.74
$-40.75
- NO
Grok 4.4 released by July 8?
7891 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-64.10
Recent activity
- REWARD$8.89Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- REWARD$6.95Jul 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$25.29Jul 17, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$5.22Jul 17, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$3.20Jul 17, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$3.20Jul 17, 11:27 UTC
- MERGEIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$14.92Jul 17, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$43.50Jul 17, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$60.00Jul 17, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$0.99Jul 17, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$0.36Jul 17, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$60.00Jul 17, 04:01 UTC
- REWARD$13.02Jul 17, 00:00 UTC
- MERGEIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$6.76Jul 16, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$5.27Jul 16, 15:11 UTC
- MERGEIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$13.24Jul 16, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$10.33Jul 16, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?$4.40Jul 16, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$0.15Jul 16, 12:13 UTC
- MERGEOver $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?$51.92Jul 16, 12:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $12.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 22:36 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.