Probable-Well
0xf39bab31321a95fff24637e41f08655e5711c85f
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$4.00
Total PnL
$-2.45
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025$4.00
$3.00
- YES
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025?
22 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Pope Leo visit Ukraine first?
10 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.45
- YES
Iran nuclear test in 2025?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will PVISION win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament?$1.00Aug 11, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PVISION win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?$1.00Jul 14, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before August?$1.00Jul 7, 09:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump Media invest in $TRUMP before July?$0.00Jul 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMMH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30?$0.00Jul 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. forces in Gaza before July?$0.00Jul 7, 09:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$0.00Jul 7, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025?$1.00Jun 28, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran nuclear test in 2025?$1.00Jun 16, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.23Jun 2, 11:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup?$0.00Jun 2, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo visit Ukraine first?$1.45May 13, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?$0.00May 13, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mark Carney lose his seat?$0.00May 13, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMIs Kanye queer?$0.00May 13, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIs Kanye queer?$1.22Apr 28, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Red Bull have the second-highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP?$0.00Apr 28, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Red Bull have the second-highest Constructor score at the Saudi Arabian GP?$1.55Apr 17, 13:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?$0.00Apr 17, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Carney lose his seat?$1.64Apr 2, 13:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $1.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 3, 09:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 12:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".