Frosty-Epithelium
0xf430497d92dc057e3c5b2aab603a0db2057ae6bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$35.59
Total PnL
$-792.29
Realised
$1.32
Win rate
82%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 18?
36 shares @ 9.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$35.59
$32.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 4?
1305 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-75.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 4?
928 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-118.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3?
800 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 13?
540 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 11?
500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 11?
500 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6?
467 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-6.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 13?
460 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 18?
450 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?$0.50Aug 2, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 23?$7.75Jul 23, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 23?$1.25Jul 23, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 23?$3.00Jul 23, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 23?$2.33Jul 23, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 23?$1.14Jul 23, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 23?$1.95Jul 23, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 23?$1.50Jul 23, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 23?$0.80Jul 23, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 23?$1.60Jul 23, 05:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 23?$1.28Jul 23, 05:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 23?$0.96Jul 23, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 23?$1.57Jul 23, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 23?$1.04Jul 23, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 23?$2.03Jul 23, 04:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 23?$3.35Jul 23, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 23?$1.21Jul 23, 04:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 23?$0.88Jul 23, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 23?$3.22Jul 23, 04:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 23?$0.76Jul 23, 03:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 04:21 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 2, 15:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.