Only-Eggnog
0xf45079cde1c119496181b3f8b5cc0b10cd029e45
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?
106 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.11
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 11 be less than 1,500,000?
105 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 11 be between 1,500,000 and 1,700,000?
91 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be greater than 2,400,000?
88 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.09
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 11 be greater than 2,300,000?
77 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.08
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be less than 1,600,000?
76 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.08
- YES
Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
76 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.08
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 9 be between 1,500,000 and 1,600,000?
75 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.08
- YES
Will People’s Party (PPLE) finish in third place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
74 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.07
- YES
Will the Social Democratic Party be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?
74 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.01Jul 7, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Autodesk Q1 billings be above $2.0B?$0.01Jul 6, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$0.01Jul 6, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manuel Gavira be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$0.00Jul 5, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manuel Gavira be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$0.00Jul 5, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$0.01Jul 5, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$0.01Jul 5, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYE. Jean Carroll federally charged by June 30, 2026?$0.01Jul 3, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in June?$0.01Jul 3, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Antonio Villaraigosa finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County?$0.00Jul 3, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Antonio Villaraigosa finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County?$0.00Jul 3, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30?$0.01Jul 3, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?$0.01Jul 3, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$0.01Jul 2, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$0.01Jul 2, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYLarry Wheels divorce by June 30?$0.01Jul 2, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026$0.01Jul 2, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026$0.01Jul 2, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026$0.01Jul 2, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026$0.01Jul 2, 13:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 09:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 03:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.