Rough-Forecast
0xf4520a2d6c69d4d66c69976fdd2350723871c0ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$75.53
Total PnL
$-951.93
Realised
$7.86
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of July?
814 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.18
$2.79
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in July?
538 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$8.34
$-3.22
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
390 shares @ 3.3¢·now 1.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$7.21
$-5.74
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in July?
1386 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.93
$3.12
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
1349 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.40
$-7.33
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
502 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in July?
468 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.22
$-2.90
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in July?
1018 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.07
$-4.64
- YES
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in July?
1033 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.62
$-6.89
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
2045 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.07
$-22.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 29?$1.36Jul 29, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?$0.90Jul 29, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?$0.62Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$2.60Jul 28, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$1.56Jul 28, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 29?$1.07Jul 28, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 29?$1.12Jul 28, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 29?$5.00Jul 28, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 29?$5.00Jul 28, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$2.91Jul 28, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$2.81Jul 28, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$0.20Jul 28, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$0.20Jul 28, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$0.71Jul 28, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 28?$0.90Jul 28, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on July 28?$1.04Jul 28, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 28?$0.08Jul 28, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on July 28?$0.92Jul 28, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 28?$3.32Jul 28, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on July 28?$0.04Jul 28, 17:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.