Impish-Disparity
0xf45f68df2146a915496baa96980ed0933835dbfd
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
55
Open notional
$72.74
Total PnL
$-192.90
Realised
$2.62
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
30 shares @ 59.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.85
$0.15
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?
20 shares @ 61.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$12.10
$-0.10
- YES
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
25 shares @ 30.3¢·now 30.4¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.60
$0.02
- YES
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
10 shares @ 67.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.40
$-0.30
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
30 shares @ 14.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.30
$-0.90
- YES
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.60
$-0.05
- NO
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
100 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.45
$-0.15
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.35
$-0.65
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
20 shares @ 8.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.11
$-0.59
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.53Jun 26, 12:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$0.13Jun 26, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?$12.44Jun 26, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?$1.06Jun 26, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$7.78Jun 26, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$1.97Jun 26, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 26?$0.93Jun 26, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$2.30Jun 25, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?$15.00Jun 25, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25?$0.08Jun 25, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25?$3.53Jun 25, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 25?$2.71Jun 25, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25?$0.87Jun 25, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25?$0.04Jun 25, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?$6.30Jun 25, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25?$2.05Jun 25, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?$5.61Jun 25, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25?$9.35Jun 25, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?$2.20Jun 25, 11:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25?$11.36Jun 25, 10:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 14:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 12:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.