Accomplished-Replication
0xf47c816c286d7fc921f3560efc20cf565fbd2404
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-165.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on January 28?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
5100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on January 19?
3006 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.60
- YES
US mobile/internet outages caused by Iran?
2437 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -10°C on January 27?
2014 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the US strike Somalia next?
1667 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
1437 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on January 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?
956 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$5.21Mar 23, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$2.00Mar 23, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$2.00Mar 23, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Man I Need - Olivia Dean" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$2.00Mar 23, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$2.00Mar 23, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?$2.00Mar 23, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$5.00Mar 23, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?$5.00Mar 23, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$5.00Mar 23, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?$5.00Feb 1, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$10.20Feb 1, 05:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?$0.00Feb 1, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?$10.00Jan 30, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS mobile/internet outages caused by Iran?$5.00Jan 30, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS mobile/internet outages caused by Iran?$5.00Jan 30, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?$10.00Jan 28, 08:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 28?$10.42Jan 28, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?$5.00Jan 28, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 27?$0.35Jan 28, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 28?$7.05Jan 28, 00:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $7.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 18:11 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 23, 08:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.