Fickle-Outlay
0xf49ded4b0c5c86687cfcfca354a7b06628137e5b
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$10.8K
Total PnL
$-15.0K
Realised
$-1.7K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
9690 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$9.2K
$339.17
- YES
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?
971 shares @ 91.9¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$893.04
$0.50
- YES
Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?
842 shares @ 93.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$736.75
$-46.31
- NO
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
19131 shares @ 23.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.5K
- YES
Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
8166 shares @ 20.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
5554 shares @ 78.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.4K
- NO
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
2028 shares @ 67.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.4K
- YES
Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
1188 shares @ 71.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-844.34
- YES
Will "Kpop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
870 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-71.70
- YES
Will "The Addams Family 2" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
850 shares @ 60.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-512.81
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?$770.59May 19, 21:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$929.00May 19, 21:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?$339.05May 19, 20:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$717.82May 19, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$20.43May 17, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$47.54May 16, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$42.24May 16, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$3.98May 16, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$107.57May 16, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$3.21May 16, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$7.86May 16, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$38.70May 16, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$9.00May 16, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$171.82May 16, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$63.27May 16, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$18.00May 16, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$218.89May 16, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?$18.79May 16, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?$37.96May 16, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?$18.98May 16, 07:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $122.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 16:29 UTC
- Last active
- May 19, 21:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.