Unknown-Grocery-Melon
0xf4ade45d1389a3ee7adcda47fc84b551ddd3398a
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$11.83
Total PnL
$-16.21
Realised
$-2.92
Win rate
19%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 25?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 3.7¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.37
$0.27
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 25?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.30
$0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 23?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.30
$0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C on July 25?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.28
$0.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on July 24?
35 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.28
$-0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 23?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.27
$0.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 24?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.25
$0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 24?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.23
$0.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 25?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.23
$0.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 25?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.23
$0.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 25?$0.05Jul 23, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 25?$0.05Jul 23, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 25?$0.05Jul 23, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C or higher on July 25?$0.05Jul 23, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 25?$0.05Jul 23, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 23?$0.05Jul 23, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on July 25?$0.05Jul 23, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 23?$0.05Jul 23, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 24?$0.05Jul 23, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 23?$0.05Jul 23, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 23?$0.05Jul 23, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 24?$0.04Jul 23, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 24?$0.01Jul 23, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on July 25?$0.03Jul 23, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on July 25?$0.02Jul 23, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or below on July 25?$0.02Jul 23, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C or higher on July 25?$0.05Jul 23, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on July 24?$0.05Jul 23, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 23?$0.05Jul 23, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 23?$0.05Jul 23, 07:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
19% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.
48 closed markets, 19% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 06:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 07:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.