Quarrelsome-Calm
0xf4b13fea865321d231b515e8786c62e6f561ab63
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
141
Open notional
$633.21
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$51.98
Win rate
31%
49 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 141- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
345 shares @ 87.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$328.62
$28.62
- NO
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
207 shares @ 96.4¢·now 98.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$204.04
$4.04
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
110 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.55
$0.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 19?
1382 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-12.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 24?
1186 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-75.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on May 2?
1144 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-28.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 29?
702 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-7.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 23?
653 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-31.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 18?
598 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-66.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 25?
543 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-15.65
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 49 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
49 closed markets, 31% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $70.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 49 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.