Polished-Syndicate
0xf4cc9200229f347521cd91d2831b99ddc0748537
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
89
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-73.2K
Realised
$150.55
Win rate
74%
43 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 89- YES
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?
455284 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-53.1K
- NO
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
87257 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-9.9K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
17748 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.7K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
16999 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.4K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
9185 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-664.30
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
2524 shares @ 45.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
2498 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-724.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
1916 shares @ 24.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-468.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
1561 shares @ 24.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-377.84
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
1081 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-273.65
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$10.25Mar 29, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$3.61Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.37Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.35Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.11Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$7.53Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$7.75Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$2.17Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.02Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$2.17Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$3.61Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.44Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$7.23Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$3.32Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.35Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.38Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$1.40Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$1.30Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.29Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.35Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
83/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 43 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
43 closed markets, 74% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 28, 17:24 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 29, 01:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 43 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.