0xf4ceb1c82f11d727933c226c149d9a833a078c57
0xf4ceb1c82f11d727933c226c149d9a833a078c57
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$140.10
Total PnL
$174.33
Realised
$509.84
Win rate
82%
50 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
Will SpaceX successfully launch and land Starship SN15 by April 28, 2021?
66 shares @ 59.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2021$66.48
$27.15
- NO
Will Uniswap V3 be live on Optimism by June 15, 2021?
43 shares @ 22.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2021$43.45
$33.83
- NO
Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?
18 shares @ 38.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2021$17.95
$11.05
- YES
Will $UNI (Uniswap) be above $36 on April 27, 2021?
4 shares @ 43.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2021$4.44
$2.52
- NO
Will 170 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 15, 2021?
3 shares @ 63.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2021$2.68
$0.97
- YES
Will Matt Gaetz continue to hold Congressional office through June 1, 2021?
2 shares @ 88.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2021$1.86
$0.22
- NO
Will there be more than 160 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by May 10, 2021?
1 shares @ 47.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 10, 2021$1.16
$0.61
- YES
Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 21?
1 shares @ 84.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2021$1.07
$0.17
- NO
Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before May 1?
1 shares @ 79.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2021$1.01
$0.21
- YES
Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?
2933 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2021$0.00
$-66.75
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 50 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
50 closed markets, 82% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 50 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.