Colorful-Porch
0xf4d45b11a9cca00da71baa127636c28dbddeaa4a
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-92.39
Realised
$-21.02
Win rate
2%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 26?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 18?
40 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 19?
40 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26?
36 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 24?
34 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May 24?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 24?
29 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 25?
26 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on May 26?
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 20?$9.10Jul 21, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 19?$0.04Jul 19, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 19?$0.41Jul 19, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 19?$0.38Jul 18, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on July 19?$0.58Jul 18, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 19?$0.50Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 19?$0.52Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on July 19?$0.44Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 20?$1.05Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 19?$0.94Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 20?$1.05Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 19?$0.94Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 19?$0.69Jul 18, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 20?$1.05Jul 18, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 20?$1.05Jul 18, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 19?$0.18Jul 18, 22:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?$1.03Jun 1, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 26?$0.96May 25, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 26?$0.41May 25, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 26?$0.02May 25, 16:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
42 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $0.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 20, 18:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 02:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.