Immense-Chocolate
0xf4df56dcd1416dcf351593e827892da7eb90e4f3
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$100.19
Total PnL
$-609.18
Realised
$-35.25
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
76 shares @ 15.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$75.99
$63.96
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
51 shares @ 40.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.02
$0.76
- YES
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
909 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.18
$-2.27
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
54400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-132.57
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
34167 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-71.65
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
33333 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-34.97
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
16667 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-33.33
- YES
Will Miami (FL) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
9149 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-36.59
- YES
Will VCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
6667 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-13.33
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in April 2026?
6667 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-13.33
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.