Free-Selection
0xf4e01749308828f171ca0cc8f0732e6a2f505dad
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$3.00
Total PnL
$-23.61
Realised
$-0.62
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 11?
15 shares @ 13.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$3.00
$1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on June 29?
238 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 28?
206 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 28?
90 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 28?
36 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28?
14 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28?
13 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.08
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 28?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 11?$2.09Jul 10, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?$5.81Jul 10, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?$5.37Jul 10, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 10?$5.37Jul 10, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 10?$4.87Jul 9, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 9?$4.86Jul 9, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 9?$4.71Jul 8, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 8?$4.71Jul 8, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 8?$4.40Jul 8, 09:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 8?$4.41Jul 8, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 8?$4.29Jul 8, 04:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?$1.42Jul 8, 04:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?$2.87Jul 8, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?$2.82Jul 8, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?$1.01Jul 8, 02:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?$1.33Jul 8, 02:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?$2.50Jul 8, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 8?$4.58Jul 7, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 7?$4.56Jul 7, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 7?$4.03Jul 7, 11:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 18:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 10:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.