Alarming-Ketch
0xf4ea6cb3ea41a77c60433effe18618675cc87ef6
Wallet digest
Activity score
33/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-689.09
Realised
$145.33
Win rate
7%
94 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
1390 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28?
1027 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 31?
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 31?
316 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 31?
223 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.23
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 1?
110 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 27?
104 shares @ 71.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-74.23
- NO
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
102 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 29?
82 shares @ 75.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-61.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 30?
77 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$5.12Aug 15, 21:33 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$6.24Aug 15, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$5.07Aug 15, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - August 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$5.87Aug 15, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$5.05Aug 15, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - August 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$7.03Aug 15, 06:31 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$7.23Aug 15, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$5.10Aug 15, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$5.11Aug 15, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$6.48Aug 15, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$5.08Aug 15, 04:20 UTC
- TRADESELLTotal Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?$8.24Aug 15, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?$2.51Aug 15, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner$5.04Aug 15, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYTotal Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?$5.10Aug 15, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$6.82Aug 14, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$5.09Aug 14, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$5.83Aug 14, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 10?$7.01Aug 10, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 9?$5.61Aug 9, 06:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
61/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 94 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
94 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 15:41 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 21:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 94 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.