Well-Made-Conversation
0xf5124e19272b93edfc237d70512058023ebb0985
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$157.39
Total PnL
$-494.25
Realised
$19.44
Win rate
79%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
1362 shares @ 9.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$74.91
$-48.18
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
21 shares @ 85.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$17.32
$-0.53
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 22?
21 shares @ 71.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$13.56
$-1.37
- YES
Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
51 shares @ 29.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Mar 14, 2027$13.01
$-1.78
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?
10 shares @ 96.0¢·now 97.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.91
$0.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?
15 shares @ 56.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$8.67
$0.00
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?
71 shares @ 10.8¢·now 11.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$8.21
$0.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 22?
6 shares @ 83.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$4.71
$-0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?
5 shares @ 84.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$4.29
$0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?
4 shares @ 65.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$2.26
$-0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$2.92Aug 21, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?$4.44Aug 21, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?$4.39Aug 21, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 21?$4.64Aug 21, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?$4.21Aug 21, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?$1.86Aug 21, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$2.74Aug 21, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$2.91Aug 21, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$2.91Aug 21, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$2.95Aug 21, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?$8.67Aug 21, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$2.91Aug 21, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?$2.97Aug 21, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$2.82Aug 21, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?$1.36Aug 21, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$0.09Aug 21, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 21?$2.01Aug 21, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 21?$4.59Aug 21, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 21?$3.16Aug 21, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?$0.03Aug 21, 07:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 22:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 07:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.