Creamy-Geology
0xf524bfb554fc488324dafe01ce36178156c38178
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-166.07
Win rate
30%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
100 shares @ 94.5¢·now 92.8¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$92.85
$-1.65
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
95 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$86.40
$-0.09
- YES
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 87.5¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$84.50
$-3.00
- NO
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
100 shares @ 93.5¢·now 82.9¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$82.90
$-10.55
- NO
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026?
100 shares @ 84.4¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$78.55
$-5.80
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 70.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$68.71
$-1.50
- NO
Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?
100 shares @ 79.5¢·now 68.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$68.50
$-11.00
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 69.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$64.50
$-5.00
- NO
Will Ant-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?
100 shares @ 73.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$61.50
$-11.50
- NO
Will João Campos win the Pernambuco Governor election?
100 shares @ 70.5¢·now 60.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$60.00
$-10.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?$16.54Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?$38.72Jul 28, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$6.22Jul 28, 21:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the AL-05 House seat?$46.00Jul 28, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?$44.00Jul 28, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?$35.50Jul 28, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?$52.02Jul 28, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLVisa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 9.5%-10.5%?$13.20Jul 28, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?$42.90Jul 28, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?$5.00Jul 28, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.55Jul 28, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$1.00Jul 28, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?$30.00Jul 28, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45.50Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45.55Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- MERGEWill the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?$3.37Jul 28, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$1.20Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?$16.22Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?$2.26Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?$1.74Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
61 closed markets, 30% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $17.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.