0xf53a1cbbd916f4ea9b18ee6eda8d2e0edc457970
0xf53a1cbbd916f4ea9b18ee6eda8d2e0edc457970
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$112.61
Total PnL
$-147.15
Realised
$90.60
Win rate
79%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
37 shares @ 41.5¢·now 88.8¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$32.54
$17.33
- YES
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
68 shares @ 29.9¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$22.44
$2.08
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
75 shares @ 14.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$15.82
$5.27
- YES
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
16 shares @ 40.6¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$13.93
$7.55
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
189 shares @ 20.1¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$12.29
$-25.69
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
70 shares @ 14.4¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$11.97
$1.80
- YES
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
32 shares @ 33.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$3.51
$-7.03
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
1 shares @ 35.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.11
$-0.33
- YES
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
219 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.38
- YES
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
190 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.13
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$4.41Jul 12, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$2.02Jul 11, 18:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$1.51Jul 11, 18:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$0.83Jul 11, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$19.00Jul 11, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$2.42Jul 11, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$5.52Jul 11, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$11.04Jul 11, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$9.94Jul 11, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$6.48Jul 10, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill White House post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$11.09Jul 10, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 Week of July 6 2026?$5.42Jul 10, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $650 Week of July 6 2026?$10.20Jul 10, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$4.64Jul 10, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$11.73Jul 10, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$11.73Jul 10, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$10.54Jul 9, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$10.80Jul 9, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$8.70Jul 8, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill White House post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$17.03Jul 8, 17:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $8.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 16:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 01:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.