Active-Fallacy
0xf5428d9aa2d1b00228b3cd7396551da6fb9802c3
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$148.64
Total PnL
$-330.20
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
149 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$148.64
$60.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
2383 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-99.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
790 shares @ 30.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-244.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?
483 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
294 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
117 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026?
107 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
100 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
50 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$89.00Mar 10, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$100.00Mar 10, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$0.67Mar 10, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?$8.32Mar 10, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLPrince Andrew sentenced to prison?$10.00Mar 10, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $10.39Mar 10, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$16.09Mar 10, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$29.30Mar 10, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?$14.29Mar 10, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$100.00Mar 10, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$247.00Feb 22, 09:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$246.98Feb 22, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$110.00Feb 22, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$12.20Feb 22, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$19.00Feb 22, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYPrince Andrew sentenced to prison?$14.00Feb 22, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?$5.00Feb 22, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?$5.00Feb 22, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?$5.00Feb 22, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?$5.00Feb 22, 09:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $37.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 14:26 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 10, 06:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".